Cook Political Report analyst skeptical redistricting solves Trump’s midterm election

Amy Walter, publisher of Cook Political Report, says President Donald Trump's call for congressional redistricting to elect more Republicans to the U.S. House is unlikely to compensate for losses by other Republicans in November 2026. (Photo by Tim Carpenter/Kansas Reflector)

LAWRENCE — Political analyst Amy Walter views the campaign by President Donald Trump to gerrymander congressional districts as a gamble unlikely to blunt historical precedent and prevent a Democratic takeover of the U.S. House after the 2026 midterm election.

“I like to say in midterm elections there are three options if you’re the party in the White House. It’s going to be bad. It’s going to be really bad. Or, it’s going to be catastrophically bad. There is nothing else that is likely,” she told a crowd Thursday at Dole Institute of Politics at the University of Kansas.

Walter, publisher of Cook Political Report and a guest on PBS NewsHour, NBC’s Meet the Press, CNN’s Inside Politics and the Fox News Channel, said Trump would be a substantial motivator in terms of Democratic turnout in the midterm scheduled for one year from now. It’s unclear whether Trump could likewise inspire dramatic turnout among GOP voters in November 2026, she said.

“Midterm elections are a referendum on the party in power,” Walter said. “The challenge for a president is to turn out his winning presidential coalition.”

Walter said at this moment it might be possible for Republicans to expand by a half dozen or so the number of seats in the U.S. House through redistricting. Those gains are unlikely to compensate for anticipated losses by other GOP House candidates, she said, but politics of the midterm could be unpredictable.

Walter was interviewed at Dole Institute of Politics at the University of Kansas by Jerry Seib, a journalist with The Wall Street Journal for almost 45 years. He said the unprecedented redistricting battle illustrated what Trump’s advisers expected in the upcoming election cycle.

“That tells you that the White House, Trump-world, is worried,” Seib said.

Walter said a Democratic Party majority in the House or Senate would use committees to challenge Trump’s use of executive power or investigate the president’s actions.

“The president also knows quite well the last time Democrats were in charge while he was there, they impeached him twice,” Walter said.

Trump’s plan for mid-decade redistricting has created political turmoil in Kansas, where Republican leaders of the Legislature want a special session to realign the state’s four congressional districts. The goal would be to pull the re-election rug out from under Democratic U.S. Rep. Sharice Davids, who serves the Kansas City area.

 

‘Battle for control’

In the U.S. House, Republicans hold the smallest majority since 1931. If Democrats flipped three seats in the midterm, Republicans would lose control of the chamber.

The 53-47 U.S. Senate could change hands if Democrats secured four additional seats, but Walter said that Republican majority appeared to be solid because opportunities for Democrats were limited in 2026. If Democrats failed to grab the Maine Senate seat held by Republican Susan Collins, in a state won by Democrat Kamala Harris, there could be no path for Democrats, she said.

“The battle for control of Congress is something that is very consequential, especially if your party currently has all three branches and it’s a lot easier to get a whole lot done when you don’t have to negotiate with your opposition,” Walter said.

The historical record reveals that in 18 of 20 midterms since World War II shows the party of the sitting president lost an average of 27 seats in the U.S. House during midterm elections.

The two exceptions came after the 2001 terrorist attack under President George W. Bush and amid President Bill Clinton’s impeachment controversy in 1998.

In those rare midterm elections, Bush and Clinton had robust approval ratings of at least 60%. Recent polling indicated 43% of Americans approved of Trump’s performance in the second term. That’s the statistical territory Trump occupied in the 2018 midterm when Republicans lost 40 seats in the U.S. House.

 

Feckless Democrats

Walter said the biggest wild card in 2026 was the gerrymandering of U.S. House districts to benefit either Republican or Democratic candidates. Texas and California would cancel each other out, so it could come down to the Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Indiana, Kansas, Missouri and North Carolina.

Walter said another complicating factor in sorting out the next midterm was the Democratic Party lacked the fervor of a decade ago.

The position of Democrats in the federal government shutdown was driven by criticism from activists who questioned what lawmakers were doing to push back against Trump, she said.

“That is driven in large part by pressure from rank-and-file Democrats who say, ‘What are our leaders doing? They’re feckless. Why don’t they fight back more against Donald Trump?’ There is this worry among Democrats that their weak party brand big and this intraparty friction may have an impact on turnout,” she said.

Another factor could be timing of a U.S. Supreme Court decision on whether the Voting Rights Act required districts with a majority of minority residents. The outcome could come too late in 2026 for states to adjust boundaries before candidate filing deadlines, she said.

 

Trump in 2028?

Walter said Congress wasn’t going back to a past era that included a spirit of bipartisanship.

“It’s pretty clear that more and more we do have two Americas,” she said. “The job of the parties now seems to be more of, ‘How can I make sure my America turns out to vote and crushes their America.'”

To put it another way, she said: “The idea of the two sides figuring out, ‘All right, well, this is a priority and let’s work on a bipartisan bill to address it.’ It seems pretty far-fetched.”

In response to an audience question, Seib and Walter said they doubted Trump would have the audacity to seek a third term as president during 2028 in violation of the U.S. Constitution.

“I think this is a tease right now. I think that even for Trump it would be a bridge too far,” Seib said. “Why? If you think you’re having a wonderful second term and you’re going to go on Mount Rushmore, why would you want to tarnish your legacy by starting a fight with the Supreme Court you’re probably going to lose.”

Walter responded: “I absolutely agree with you.” She theorized there was no longer a Republican Party in the United States, because it should be regarded as a Trump Party. “Whether it is the name Donald Trump on the ballot in 2028, or someone else, they will come from Donald Trump and he will endorse that candidate and they will be the nominee.”

She went on to suggest it wasn’t probable Trump or the federal government could reschedule or cancel the 2026 election. She’s prepared for local and state governments, organized to diffuse power in election management, to conduct free and fair elections across the country.

“I’m still optimistic that, yes, that will be the case,” she said.