Beware false hope: Democrats face uphill race against Roger Marshall, no matter their candidate

Posted May 5, 2026

Adam Hamilton, pastor of the largest United Methodist Church in the country, announces his candidacy for U.S. Senate on April 30, 2026, in Prairie Village, Kansas.

Adam Hamilton, pastor of the largest United Methodist Church in the country, announces his candidacy for U.S. Senate on April 30, 2026, in Prairie Village, Kansas. (Photo by Anna Kaminski/Kansas Reflector)

Democrats have put the U.S. Senate race in play!

Johnson County pastor Adam Hamilton throwing his hat in the ring to run against Sen. Roger Marshall transforms the political landscape! Democrats finally have a shot at a marquee race! Just look at all the money he raised!

… that’s what people have been saying, at least, over the past few days. I need my Democratic friends to take a gigantic deep breath and return to the real world, if only for the length of this column. The U.S. Senate race in Kansas will be interesting this year, and many qualified Democrats are running for their party’s nomination.

But whomever the party selects — Hamilton or Christy Davis or Erik Murray or Patrick Schmidt or one of the five others running — he or she will be an underdog. Kansans haven’t sent a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 1933. Marshall’s unflinching allegiance to Trump all but guarantees support from the president and his teetering Make America Great Again movement.

Could a Democrat win? Sure. In some world, with some lucky combination of factors. I’m just not convinced we’re living in that world.

Before I overwhelm you all with my grouching, let’s take a moment to list the Democratic roster. The links go to Kansas Reflector interviews or coverage of the candidates. For a race still in its early days, I think we’ve offered a pretty comprehensive look. And more will follow.

OK, still with me?

I’m skeptical of the Hamilton hype. He might run a strong general election campaign, but he has to make it through a Democratic primary first. And from the social media chatter I’ve seen, his efforts as a clergyman to straddle the partisan divide have drawn intense pushback from — well, partisans.

My take on the situation would be different if different people were running.

If either Gov. Laura Kelly or U.S. Rep. Sharice Davids wanted the seat, all bets would be off. Both officials are known quantities, well-liked by voters. Both, frankly, are more nimble politicians than the clod-footed Marshall.

But Kelly has given no indication that she wants to remain in politics after wrapping up her second term as governor. While Davids made noise about a statewide run (and nearly convinced me she was serious about it), she’s apparently content in the U.S. House. Neither one appears tempted by the opportuntiy.

That could sum up the contest. If the two most talented and agile Democratic politicians in Kansas don’t want to run, they probably don’t think the race is especially winnable.

I’ve met two of the candidates — Davis and Murray — and enjoyed chatting with them. Before announcing her candidacy, Davis wrote a couple of opinion columns for this section. But I’m not going to claim that candidates’ affability when meeting a left-of-center commentary writer counts for much.

Kansas has seen dramatic U.S. Senate races in recent memory. Independent Greg Orman challenged Republican incumbent Pat Roberts in 2014. The elder candidate ended up prevailing. In 2020, Democrat Barbara Bollier mounted a strong early challenge to Marshall but didn’t pull out the win.

We’ve been down this road before. We’ve seen strong, well-funded outsider voices challenge Republican dominance. And they’ve been stomped to smithereens.

Now, listen. I’m not a professional political prognosticator. I can recount multiple times that I’ve drawn the wrong conclusions.

On the other hand, the Democratic primary puts me in mind of another contest, some 48 years ago.

The 1978 Republican primary for U.S. Senate contest saw nine candidates, with the winner taking 31% of the vote. Yet Nancy Landon Kassebaum went on to run and win in the fall, serving our state with grace and distinction for the next two decades.

Maybe the next Nancy Kassebaum waits among the contenders in the crowded Democratic primary. Maybe one of these men or women will emerge to give Kansans a true choice after deadening years of Trump’s tirades and trade wars.  Stranger things have happened, and the state has benefited.

But I would advise Democratic partisans against getting their hopes up. They might take a look at those uncontested races for the Kansas Legislature if they want to make a difference.

Clay Wirestone is Kansas Reflector opinion editor. Through its opinion section, Kansas Reflector works to amplify the voices of people who are affected by public policies or excluded from public debate. Find information, including how to submit your own commentary, here.

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