Calm before the storm: These four issues could demolish Kansas state government by year’s end
The Kansas Statehouse dome stands in front of billowing clouds on May 27, 2026. (Photo by Sherman Smith/Kansas Reflector)
We wallow through late June, the long days alternating between prickling rain and sodden heat, news of the world outside obscured by the muggy haze of long weekends, summer vacations and evenings spent streaming “Widow’s Bay” (it’s excellent).
I enjoy the days, at last for now, because I know they offer the briefest respite before another wrenching political season.
Call it the calm before the storm, 2026 edition.
If my recent columns and the latest Kansas Reflector coverage haven’t convinced you, we’re in for some crazy times as summer decays into fall and fall freezes into winter. Our state’s politics may well shift hard to the right, with consequences playing out for decades to come. Please don’t say I didn’t warn you.
As the preternaturally youthful indie band Sparks put it a quarter-century ago:
It’s the calm before the storm
Something big is coming soon
Something that will change your tune
It’s the calm before the storm
False sense of security
Shown to be a forgery
Here are four big stories to watch as the summer devolves into electoral trench warfare.
A new triple play
It could play out like this. U.S. Sen. Roger Marshall resigns for a Trump administration post. A legislative committee recommends three Republicans for appointment from Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly. She selects former Gov. Jeff Colyer over two manifestly unqualified options.
Thanks to Senate Bill 105, passed in 2025, Colyer goes on to serve until 2028 without facing voters. In the meantime, Senate President Ty Masterson romps to the GOP gubernatorial nomination, thanks in part to Colyer’s exit from the race.
Kansas Reflector senior reporter Tim Carpenter and yours truly wrote about the law and its possible applications last week. Is it unconstitutional? At least one source told me yes. But could it still happen? Count me apprehensive. If Colyer does become the U.S. senator, what’s to stop him from resigning after May 1 in 2028 and allowing the Legislature to circumvent voters for another two years? Why would we need elections at all?
Kelly’s legacy evaporates
The governor will leave office in January. A Democrat could succeed her (she’s doing her best to ensure that’s state Sen. Ethan Corson, D-Fairway). But it’s just as likely that a Republican does so. Polymarket, an online prediction outlet, puts the odds of GOP control at 61%.
Republicans will almost certainly keep control of the Kansas Senate and House. That means a unified, GOP-powered state government. Anything and everything you might have feared from the Statehouse will come to pass. Tax cuts for the wealthy, persecution of LGBTQ+ people, additional abortion restrictions, you name it.
You’ll see Kansas become a conservative sanctuary state before your very eyes. There go eight years of modest, effective, technocratic governance like a plastic bag in the wind.
Election shenanigans
Rep. Pat Proctor, R-Leavenworth, must be considered the frontrunner for secretary of state, now that Rep. Ken Rahjes, R-Agra, has dropped out to join Scott Schwab’s gubernatorial ticket. Proctor has led the House Elections Committee into new frontiers of voter suppression, championing legislation that benefits the GOP and hinders Democrats.
Proctor has also leveled irresponsible rhetoric against groups including Kansas Appleseed, Loud Light and the American Civil Liberties Union of Kansas as an “axis of ballot harvesting.” These groups work to increase civic participation in the Sunflower State. To make them partisan targets stains both the representative and his campaign. But he seems likely as not to oversee all elections in the state.
Partisan court
If a proposed state constitutional amendment passes Aug. 4, the Kansas Supreme Court would change profoundly. Justices would be selected via public vote rather than the current, merit-based appointment system (with public retention votes). That means court members would be influenced by big-money campaign donors rather than the public good.
Our current court has stood as a proud bulwark, protecting abortion rights and public schools in the face of relentless partisan attacks. The proposed amendment has been crafted and supported by those who want to limit women’s reproductive freedoms and funnel money to private, religious-based schools. Sound dramatic? It is.
I’ve written about most of these issues in previous columns, and I will write about them again.
But in these sticky, slow days of late June, when the most pressing matter seems to be selecting fresh herbs from the garden for our mint juleps, let’s remember that we’re relaxing on borrowed time.
Clay Wirestone is Kansas Reflector opinion editor. Through its opinion section, Kansas Reflector works to amplify the voices of people who are affected by public policies or excluded from public debate. Find information, including how to submit your own commentary, here.