Opinion: Kansas Democrats rollicked and reveled after shocking election results. But they weren’t a surprise.

Jade Piros de Carvalho, right, and Julie Lorenz celebrate as other Kansas Democrats win their races while the governor election remains undetermined at Democrat Cindy Holscher's watch party Nov. 3, 2026, in Lenexa. (Photo by Baya Burgess for Kansas Reflector)

Last week’s midterm election was unprecedented but predictable, jaw-dropping but routine, earth-shattering but rock solid.

For the first half of those comparisons, you just have to look at the numbers. Kansas elected its first Democratic senator since 1932. For the first time in its entire history as a state, Kansas voters picked a Democrat to to succeed a Democratic governor (apparently). Kansas elected a Democratic attorney general, kicking square-jawed gadfly Kris Kobach to the curb. And it elected a stunning 20 additional Democrats to the Kansas House.

Sunflower State Democrats haven’t seen results like this in the modern era.

On the other hand — and this is where I find myself repeatedly focused last week — what happened on Tuesday was exactly what one might have expected to happen when the nation’s president has an approval rating in the 30s. It’s what one might have expected with sky-high fuel prices, inflation still hot, and the nation embroiled in a foreign war of choice.

For the past decade and change, Republicans and Democrats have deluded themselves into believing that the law of political gravity wouldn’t apply to their parties.

Under President Barack Obama, Democrats hoped that overhauling the nation’s healthcare system would come without electoral costs — they lost 63 seats in the U.S. House. Under President Donald Trump, Republicans prayed that their 2024 coalition wold survive the antics of a would-be authoritarian obsessed with interior decorating, pardoning criminals and muscular hindquarters. The almighty ignored their pleas.

The laws of politics can be suspended for an election or two, given unexpected events. See Republicans under President George W. Bush after the Sept. 11 attacks, or Democrats under President Bill Clinton after his impeachment. But gravity persists.

 

Cindy Holscher, the Democratic candidate for Kansas governor, closes her Nov. 3, 2026, election watch party in Lenexa with a hopeful speech before the close race can be called. (Photo by Baya Burgess for Kansas Reflector)

Democratic swing

Razor-thin margins have delayed the race calls, but as noted above, Cindy Holscher likely will be our next governor. Chris Mann will be our next attorney general.

Add those 20 bonus Democrats in the House, and Kansas state government has jerked toward to the left. While outgoing Gov. Laura Kelly won two terms, she didn’t have the advantage of a 68-57 split in the House or a counterpart from her party in the attorney general’s office. Few followers of Kansas politics would have predicted such a result — certainly not me.

Forecasting what this means for the Kansas government is difficult because we haven’t been in this situation for decades. Kansas Republicans have come to view the Statehouse as their possession, rather than a gift loaned to them by voters a few years at a time.

Much will depend on how Republican senators react. They still hold a 31-9 supermajority in their chamber. Losing gubernatorial candidate Ty Masterson could return as president and dedicate himself to thwarting Holscher’s ambitions. He may well be successful. On the other hand, without her cooperation and the assistance of House Democrats, Masterson can’t pass much on his own.

 

Patrick Lopez, a long-time Dodge City resident and educator, protests the presence of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents on Sept. 24, 2026. (Photo by Morgan Chilson/Kansas Reflector)

West Kansas revenge

Early last month, I asked whether Trump might harbor a secret hatred for incumbent U.S. Sen. Roger Marshall. Trump’s administration had unleashed U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement officers to tear through western Kansas neighborhoods, spreading terror among residents.

Trump subsequently visited Kansas twice, supposedly showing support for the embattled senator. But you still have to wonder after looking at the enormous vote swings out in western Kansas, where Ford, Finney and Seward counties all voted for Democrat Adam Hamilton.

Preliminary vote totals over at Secretary of State Scott Schwab’s website show voters in those counties turned out in unexpected numbers for Holscher and Mann as well.

Perhaps Trump secretly disliked Masterson and Kobach too!

 

Rep. Adam Smith stands on the House floor on April 10, 2025. (Photo by Sherman Smith/Kansas Reflector)

Property tax proposal

State Rep. Adam Smith, a Weskan Republican, offered this intriguing suggestion via his Facebook page:

Smith said he only ran for reelection after Masterson blamed him for the demise of a property tax bill last session. So perhaps he has the bipartisan credibility needed to make this happen.

“I’ve been working on a bill!! For real!!” state Sen. Tim Shallenburger in an over-punctuated response.

As a former state treasurer, Shallenburger brings real policy chops to the discussion.

Lawmakers have other priorities, of course. But after the 2026 campaign season, who wouldn’t take a serious look?

 

Clay Wirestone appears as a guest on the Kansas Reflector podcast on Sept. 24, 2026. (Photo by Anna Kaminski/Kansas Reflector)

Optimistic note

I’ll admit that I’ve swung toward the cranky side since Tuesday night.

Those of us in the opinion trade must comprehend a historic event in real time, while keeping our wits about us. Partisan celebrations or acrimony can skew perspective. My beliefs persist, regardless of how any single election turns out.

Enough of my bellyaching. As I told the League of Women Voters of Johnson County on Saturday morning, the practical outcomes of this election are clear. Over the next two years, Kansas will not pass an abortion ban. It will not pass a school voucher scheme that takes from the poor and gives to the rich. It will not cut school funding over ideological flapdoodle.

Such basic good government shouldn’t be partisan. Unfortunately for everyday Kansans, conservative Republican leaders have worked ruthlessly to gouge and stifle state services. We’ve lost precious time to arrant nonsense.

The threats have’t been vanquished. But thanks to the dedicated efforts of our states voters, they’ve been delayed a good while. That’s worth a nod of appreciation this Monday.

Clay Wirestone is Kansas Reflector opinion editor. His first book, “Opinionated: Kansas Journalists Who Proved Why Commentary Matters — Then and Now,” was published in September 2026 by the University Press of Kansas. Through its opinion section, Kansas Reflector works to amplify the voices of people who are affected by public policies or excluded from public debate. Find information, including how to submit your own commentary, here.